A RESPONSE TO "A FEW THOUGHTS ON THE POPULATION OF GONDOR AND ARNOR"

Jason Beresford: 201 Plantation Club Dr Apt 1202, Melbourne, FL 32940-1970, USA ([email protected])

Š1993 Jason Beresford; first published in Other Hands 3.

Several regions Gunnar Brolin assigns populations to seem to be overpopulated when compared against both the writings of Professor Tolkien and other regions detailed by Gunnar. The areas that stand out in particular are Anfalas and Arnor. Additionally, the population of Umbar requires some discussion. As I am the author revising the old Umbar: Haven of the Corsairs, I naturally have my own thoughts on Umbar's population levels. But before I enter my discussion, I wish to commend Gunnar for an excellent and thought-provoking article. His analysis of Gondor's population is very valuable and, I feel, highly accurate.

Anfalas
Anfalas and the Enedhwaith are the territories farthest removed from the population centers of Gondor. As such, one might expect that they would have a lower population density than lands closer to the center of the kingdom, such as Lamedon and the coasts of Harondor. With a population density of 2-5, the Enedhwaith compares favorably with population density of 10 for both Lamedon and the coasts of Harondor. Anfalas, however, has a population density of 10. This is much too high, barring a strong reason for people to settle this remote corner of the kingdom.

When Gondor's population peaks around TA 1400, a density of 5 would seem appropriate for Anfalas, giving it a peak population of 500,000. At the time of the Last Alliance, Anfalas was not part of Gondor, but many of the native Daen Coentis/Daen Lintis and Drúedain in Gondor might have migrated to Anfalas. Thus its population density and total population would most probably be about the same or slightly less as that in TA 1400. However by the time of the War of the Ring, Gondor's population should have consolidated somewhat due to the external threats to the kingdom, with people from the most remote corners of the kingdom migrating back to the core provinces. A 25% to 50% drop from Anfalas' peak population would not be excessive and an actual population of around 350,000 seems appropriate.

Arnor
Arnor is a much harder region to evaluate. What little information there is about it is primarily from the late Third Age. But there is some information that can be gleaned from The Silmarillion regarding the relative population levels of Gondor and Arnor at the time of Elendil, Isildur, and Anárion. Upon their arrival, Tolkien makes specific reference to the existing Númenórean colony that becomes the kingdom of Gondor and to the many people that dwell there. This is in sharp contrast to Arnor, where no such mention is made. Thus at the beginning of the Third Age, one can assume that Arnor has the lesser population.

Furthermore, Tolkien illustrates the works of the Númenóreans/Dúnedain of Gondor in detail, yet provides only the barest sketch about those in Arnor. This reinforces the view that Arnor's population is the lesser and additionally suggests that Arnor's population is much less than that of Gondor. Yet at this time, Gunnar gives the population of Arnor as approximately 5 million, while giving Gondor a population of only 3.5 to 4 million. I propose that Arnor's population is not more than 2 million at its height, at the start of the Third Age.

One can surmise (based on the general lack of information about the population of region and the sense Tolkien gives of the region's abandonment) that Arnor is largely unpopulated at the time of the War of the Ring. Additionally, the lack of any large, inhabited settlements being mentioned (other than Bree and in the Shire) implies that there are no large concentrations of people. Gunnar suggests a population of around 3.5 to 4 million. If one were to assume that small villages predominate, an average village (including outlying farms) might number 1,000 inhabitants, and that the 3,500 to 4,000 villages are evenly spread over the 450,000 square kilometers of Arnor, then there would be one village every roughly every 10 to 11 kilometers (6.5 to 7 miles). There is no indication that any settlements outside of the Shire are anywhere near that close together. If one assumes a non-even distribution of settlements, then there must be areas of large population concentrations, and the only one mentioned by Tolkien is the Shire. Given this, at the time of the War of the Ring, a population of 1 million seems reasonable.

With an area of 450,000 square kilometers, Arnor is always sparsely populated. However her people are not scattered evenly. Tolkien is careful to point out that settlement in the kingdom is principally along the courses of the rivers Lhûn and Baranduin. Additional settlements were around Lake Evendim, Fornost, Tharbad, in Cardolan, and "in the hills of Rhudaur." It is not unreasonable to assume that settlement beyond these areas was limited. Thus much of the lands of Arnor were unsettled wilds with few inhabitants.

The settled territory of Arnor is best evaluated by the regions (later kingdoms) of Arthedain, Cardolan, and Rhudaur. The rivers Lhûn and the upper Baranduin, Lake Evendim, and Fornost all lie within Arthedain and most of her people live there. The land later called "The Shire" by the Hobbits lies along the western bank of the middle Baranduin and would also be settled, though to a lesser degree than elsewhere in Arthedain.

As the lower Baranduin forms the western border of Cardolan, one can presume that the eastern bank is one of the principle settlements of that region. The Gwathló forms the eastern border of Cardolan. The city of Tharbad straddles the river and considerable settlement should exist along the western bank, both up and downstream of the city. Additional settlements can be expected along the coast of Minhiriath.

Rhudaur is the hardest region of Arnor to evaluate. Clues about human settlement can be deduced from the settlement patterns of the Hobbits who crossed the Misty Mountains. After crossing the mountains, the Stoors followed the Bruinen downstream and settled for a time along the riverbanks in the Angle between the Mitheithel and Bruinen in southern Rhudaur. If the Stoors found this portion of Rhudaur to their liking, it is probable that the riverbanks in the Angle and Northern Eregion were also extensively settled by Rhudaur's people, though most were gone by the time the Stoors arrived.

Other settlements in Rhudaur would be in the Lone Lands, the Endless Plain, and the Trollshaws, primarily concentrated along the Mitheithel and her tributaries. The table below gives the size (in square kilometers), population density (inhabitants per square kilometer), and total population of each region described above at the time of Arnor's peak population.

Arnor (TA 1)*	Density	Area	Population
Lhûn (A)	20	5,000	100,000
Upper Baranduin (A)	25	15,000	375,000
The Shire, Baranduin West Bank (A)	15	10,000	150,000
The Shire (A)	5	25,000	125,000
Lake Evendim (A)	25	5,000	125,000
Fornost (A)	10	5,000	50,000
Middle and Lower Baranduin, East Bank (C)	15	15,000	225,000
Gwathló, West Bank (C)	15	15,000	225,000
Minhiriath, Coast (C)	5	10,000	50,000
The Angle, River Banks (R)	10	5,000	50,000
Central Angle (R)	5	10,000	50,000
Northern Eregion, Bruinen River Bank (R)	10	5,000	50,000
Lone Lands (R)	5	3,000	15,000
Endless Plain (R)	5	7,000	35,000
Trollshaws (R)	5	5,000	25,000

*(A) = Arthedain, (C) = Cardolan, (R) = Rhudaur

The total area given above is only 140,000 square kilometers, or roughly one third the total area of Arnor, and the population equals 1.65 million. If one assumes that the remaining 310,000 square kilometers of territory have an average density of 1, then Arnor has a total population of 2 million, with Arthedain having approximately 1 million, Cardolan having 700,000, and Rhudaur having 300,000. This gives Arnor an average population density of slightly less than 5 at its height.

These population numbers should be good up until TA 861, when the Arnor is divided. After then, the population of all three kingdoms begins to decrease. The population of Arthedain remains the most stable, while the population of Rhudaur the is most unstable. After the Great Plague, Rhudaur is largely abandoned and most in Cardolan have either fled to Arthedain and Gondor or died. Arthedain remains largely intact, thanks to the influx of refugees from Cardolan, though the Shire had been abandoned soon after the Witch-king's invasion and was only resettled by the Hobbits in TA 1601.

After the fall of Arthedain to Angmar, the total population of Arnor probably numbers not more than 500,000, including the sizable population of Hobbits in the Shire. Roughly 100,000 each live in the Shire and in Cardolan, while the remainder dwell in Arthedain. Rhudaur is completely abandoned. The population of Arnor slowly increases for the rest of the Third Age, rising to 1 million by the time of the War of the Ring. The greatest growth occurs in the Shire and in southern Cardolan.

Umbar
When the Númenóreans established their colony at Umbar, they laid claim only to the lands immediately surrounding the Nen Umbar. In SA 2280, Umbar was fortified and the borders of the colony were formalized: the Annabrith to the south; the coast and Rath Annûn to the north; and ten leagues (30 miles) east of the junction of the Rath Khand and the Hyarmentië. The colony encompassed a total area of approximately 75,000 square kilometers.

At various times, additional lands in Harad and Harondor have been considered part of Umbar, such as when Gondor ruled Umbar. At that time, all the lands between the Nen Belfalas and the Hyarmentië north of the Rath Annûn and south of the Harnen were also controlled by Gondor and were administered in Umbar by the Gondor's Captain of the Haven. However, the people of Umbar consider only the lands within the boundaries established in SA 2280 to be part of Umbar. Any other lands that they might controlled and the people in them are considered to be separate.

At all times in Umbar's history, the bulk of her population has lived along the coasts of the Nen Umbar. Additional major settlements are along the lower Annabrith and the coast between the Annabrith and the Nen Umbar. The northern coast and the hills of Umbar's northern peninsula are inhabited, but lightly settled. The remaining lands are virtually uninhabited.

The population of Umbar peaks twice, the just before the Great Plague and at the time of the War of the Ring. It is also at a minimum twice, just after the sinking of Númenor and in TA 930 (due to a civil war). The Great Plague, though not as devastating to Umbar as to Gondor, still resulted in the death of one fifth of Umbar's population. After the Plague, population levels were static until TA 1810, when Gondor seized Umbar for a second time and many fled to Umbarean held territories along the Harnen. After Gondor loses Umbar in TA 1940, its population grows slowly until the War of the Ring. The slow growth is due to many leaving Umbar proper as Umbar gains new territories as it expands into Harad and as the alliance with Sauron grows. The tables below give Umbar's population at its maximum of 625,000 inhabitants and minimum of 350,000.

Umbar (TA 1635/3000)*	Density	Area	Population
Coasts, Nen Umbar	40	9,000	360,000
Coasts, Nen Umbar/Annabrith	30	2,000	60,000
Lower Annabrith River Valley	30	1,000	30,000
Northern Peninsula	10	15,000	150,000
Other	<1	48,000	25,000
Total Population			625,000

Umbar (SA 3320/TA 930)	Density	Area	Population
Coasts, Nen Umbar	15	9,000	225,000
Coasts, Nen Umbar/Annabrith	10	2,000	20,000
Lower Annabrith River Valley	5	1,000	5,000
Northern Peninsula	5	15,000	75,000
Other	<1	48,000	25,000
Total Population			350,000

*In TA 1400, when Gondor's population peaks, Umbar's population numbers only 450,000. The influx of Castamir's followers in TA 1448 boosts Umbar's population to 500,000.

Dûsalan
To the south of Umbar, at the mouth of the Gondeithel, is the city-state of Dûsalan. It was founded by the Númenóreans as a logistics base for construction of the Hyarmentië over the Talath Naur. After the road was finished, many remained behind. Since its founding Dûsalan has always been independent from Umbar and it remains independent for all of the Third Age and into the Fourth. Dûsalan claims the Gondeithel river valley, the Cuivierant river valley, the coast north to the ruins of Khurd, and the coast for ten leagues (30 miles) west of the lower Cuivierant.

Dûsalan's territory encompasses a total area of 11,000 square kilometers and its population grows slowly and steadily for all of the Third Age, stumbling only due to the Great Plague in which one tenth of the population died. At the start of the Third Age, Dûsalan had only 50,000 inhabitants. Just before the Great Plague struck, its population doubles to 100,000. 10,000 later succumb to the Plague. Growth after the plague is slower than before, but by the end of the Third Age the population has climbed to 150,000.